Re: Philadelphia Phillies

[Phillies]

what Phillies players have milestones to reach in 2010? Let’s take a look at some numbers the players might reach in the coming season. Of course, injuries are always a possibility, so assume I note that caveat each time. These are all in no particular order:

    * Chase Utley, 1,000 hits (currently at 978)

This one’s almost too easy. Utley got his 22nd hit on April 27 last year, a mere 18 games into the season. All with a sore hip, too. Then again, that was one torrid start he got off to. I’ll expect something slightly more conservative, and look for hit No. 22 a little later.

    * Jimmy Rollins, 1,000 runs scored (currently at 945)

Even with an OBP as low as Rollins’s was in 2009, he still managed to cross the plate 100 times in 155 games. While it’s unlikely to think Rollins will hit as poorly again in 2010, it’s also worth contemplating Charlie Manuel’s new supposed conviction to giving the studs a few extra days off. With the great hitters behind him, he’ll cross 55 before the season is too old. He crossed 55 runs in his 80th game in 2009, back on July 20.

    * Raul Ibanez, 1,000 RBI (currently at 887)

Hitting behind Chase Utley, all things are possible, especially when it comes to RBI. Raul will need 113 ribbies in 2010 to cross this plateau, but if Ryan Howard has a bit of a power outage, Ibanez could easily scoop up his collateral RBI. A total of 113 would be his second-best total, trailing only his 2006 season in Seattle.

    * Jimmy Rollins, 100 triples (currently at 95)

Rollins hasn’t hit fewer than five triples in any season of his career, save a 14-game stint at the very beginning of his career back in 2000. Even though he’s aging, he sure doesn’t show many signs of slowing. Even though five triples really aren’t that easy to come by, Rollins should almost certainly get No. 100 here in 2010.

    * Roy Halladay, 150 wins (currently at 148)

Laughable. Halladay will start opening day against the Nationals, then likely faces the Astros, Nationals again, Braves and Mets in the four starts to follow. Even with the bit of uncertainty lingering in the air above the Phillies’ bullpen, I’d feel pretty good about Halladay notching at least two wins in his first five starts. You should, too.

    * Jamie Moyer, 4,000 innings pitched (currently at 3,908.2)

With the announcement earlier Wednesday that Moyer would be the fifth starter in the Phils’ rotation entering the 2010 season, this milestone seems a bit more feasible for Jamie to reach. Should he lose his grip on that spot to Kyle Kendrick, Drew Carpenter or any other number of viable candidates, things may get a bit murkier. Until then, though, it looks as if Jamie will get the remaining 91.1 innings onto his record after17-18 starts, if not a bit sooner. Remember: the man is 47.

Less glamorous milestones:

    * Jimmy Rollins, 5,000 outs made (currently at 4,532)

A by-product of leading off so often is that with more at-bats come more outs. During his MVP campaign in 2007, Rollins actually led the Majors in outs made with 527. He fell one short of that ignominious mark in 2009, all in 53 fewer plate appearances. Obviously, we can probably write off Jimmy’s 2009 as a blip; he shouldn’t perform that poorly again, you’d expect. However, Rollins needs 468 outs to crack 5,000 for his career, and has exceeded that 468-count figure in eight of the last nine years. The only exception, of course, was 2008, when Rollins played in just 137 games.

What would Jimmy need to do to postpone reaching the 5k peak? Well, assuming he gets the 717 plate appearances he’s averaged since his first full season, he would need to reach base 250 times for an OBP of .349. Funnily enough, that’s exactly his career high, a mark he achieved in 2008.

    * Raul Ibanez, 1,000 strikeouts (currently at 906)

Ibanez has only recently morphed into a high-strikeout player. Reasons for this are something I don’t know and am now interested in finding out (it could just be age), but it makes reaching 94 strikeouts for this season much more likely than it would in, say, 2002. Ibanez has had no fewer than 97 Ks in each of the last five seasons, but if he puts up power numbers even somewhat comparable to 2009, we’ll gladly accept that, I’m sure.

    * Ryan Howard, 1,000 strikeouts (currently at 878)

Sadly, Ryan Howard hasn’t played long enough to soften the blow of reaching this milestone. He needs 122 punchouts to hit No. 1,000, and has struck out at least 181 times in each of the past four years. We may yet see both Howard and Ibanez cross the 1,000 mark here in 2010.

Milestones to keep an eye on for 2011:

    * Jimmy Rollins, 2,000 hits (currently at 1,629)

He’s not getting 371 hits in one season – boy wouldn’t that be something – but as his 2011 option has already been picked up, it seems Jimmy will have a good shot to get his 2,000th hit in red pinstripes. He’ll need an average of 186 hits in 2010 and ‘11, but he’s passed that four times before. He’ll certainly come close and definitely reach 2,000 by 2012.

    * Chase Utley, 150 HBP (currently at 107)

It’s a wonder the man hasn’t developed a Notre Dame-like hunch of bruising on his right shoulder, turning “away” from pitches that come too far inside. Hey, it’s part of his strategy. I’ll live with hits to the back and shoulder, so long as they stay away from his hand.

Looking at you, John Lannan.

    * Ryan Howard, 1,000 hits (currently at 750)

RyGuy just isn’t a 250-hit player. He’s just not Ichiro. But he does hit enough to get to 1,000 sometime in 2011, for sure.

    * Cole Hamels, 1,000 strikeouts (currently at 686)

Needing 314 Ks, Cole could be at 1,000 strikeouts before he turns 28. That doesn’t put him on pace to challenge Nolan Ryan or even have a likely shot at 3,000, but that doesn’t make it any less impressive. Hamels is currently second on the Phillies’ all-time leaderboard for strikeouts per nine (albeit in a shorter amount of time). The man he trails? Curt Schilling, who didn’t reach his 1,000th K until he was ten seasons into his career and 30 years old.

Am I saying Cole is the next Curt? Nope. I can’t possibly know that, but Schilling finished his career with 3,116 strikeouts, and Cole is (technically) ahead of his curve right now. It’s at least fun to think about.

    * Chase Utley, 200 home runs (currently at 161)
      Chase will need a huge power surge to break this in 2010. Sitting 39 dingers away, he’s a near lock to hit number 200 by 2011, at worst. I do not, however, see him swatting all 39 of those homers in 2010, though the usual 30 or so will more than suffice. Prediction: 2011.

Chase will need a huge power surge to break this in 2010. Sitting 39 dingers away, he’s a near lock to hit number 200 by 2011, at worst. I do not, however, see him swatting all 39 of those homers in 2010, though the usual 30 or so will more than suffice.

Chase will probably play in his 1,000th game in 2010 (he’s 109 away), and among second basemen who have played 1,000-plus games since 1901, only twelve have ever hit 200 homers. Jeff Kent holds the second base record at 377, a mark Utley could challenge in the latter stages of his career.

Any milestones that I’ve missed? Do you think any current Phils have a shot at greater benchmarks? Let’s hear what you have to say.

[Phillies]

1. Who will be the fifth starter?
It depends if left-hander Jamie Moyer is healthy. If he is healthy, he is the favorite. But Moyer has had a difficult offseason. He had sports hernia surgery in October and had to be hospitalized twice following the surgery because of blood infections. That pushed back his knee surgery to January, which means he might not be ready to start the season.

Spring Training
A look ahead
Quick hits

Spring Training links
• Spring Training tickets
• Travel packages
• Spring Training schedule

If he is not ready, Kyle Kendrick is the favorite to win the No. 5 job, with Andrew Carpenter and Ryan Vogelsong also candidates.

2. Who will win the final bullpen job?
There could be more than one job available if Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero aren't ready to start the season. They're both recovering from offseason surgeries, although both are throwing and optimistic they will be ready to go.

If Lidge and Romero are healthy, pitchers like Antonio Bastardo, Sergio Escalona, David Herndon and Scott Mathieson are candidates for the sole bullpen job. But If Lidge or Romero (or both) aren't ready to start the season, the door flies open and everybody gets a shot.

3. Is Cole Hamels ready to go?
Hamels became a popular National League Cy Young Award pick after his dominating performance in the 2008 postseason, but he struggled in '09. The Phillies are confident he will bounce back, which would give then one of the best 1-2 punches in the league with Roy Halladay. The Phillies have said Hamels has been working hard this offseason and is better prepared than he was last year at this time. They hope so. One of the reasons they traded Cliff Lee is because they expect Hamels to look like his old self in '10.

2009 record
93-69, NL champions

Projected batting order
1. SS Jimmy Rollins:
  .250 BA, .296 OBP, .423 SLG, 21 HR, 77 RBI in 2009
2. 3B Placido Polanco:
  .285 BA, .331 OBP, .396 SLG, 10 HR, 72 RBI in 2009
3. 2B Chase Utley:
  .282 BA, .397 OBP, .508 SLG, 31 HR, 93 RBI in 2009
4. 1B Ryan Howard:
  .279 BA, .360 OBP, .571 SLG, 45 HR, 141 RBI in 2009
5. RF Jayson Werth:
  .268 BA, .373 OBP, .506 SLG, 36 HR, 99 RBI in 2009
6. LF Raul Ibanez:
  .272 BA, .347 OBP, .552 SLG, 34 HR, 93 RBI in 2009
7. CF Shane Victorino:
  .292 BA, .358 OBP, .445 SLG, 10 HR, 62 RBI in 2009
8. C Carlos Ruiz:
  .255 BA, .355 OBP, .425 SLG, 9 HR, 43 RBI in 2009

Who do you think will be the Phillies' fifth starter on Opening Day?
Jamie Moyer
Kyle Kendrick
Other

Projected rotation
1. Roy Halladay, 17-10, 2.79 ERA in 2009
2. Cole Hamels, 10-11, 4.32 ERA in 2009
3. Joe Blanton, 12-8, 4.05 ERA in 2009
4. J.A. Happ, 12-4, 2.93 ERA in 2009
5. Jamie Moyer, 12-10, 4.94 ERA in 2009

Projected bullpen
Closer: Brad Lidge, 31/42 saves, 7.21 ERA in 2009
RH setup man: Ryan Madson, 3.26 ERA in 2009
LH setup man: J.C. Romero, 2.70 ERA in 2009

The new guys
Halladay: Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. wanted Halladay badly before last summer's July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline, but with the price too high, Amaro moved to Lee instead. And later, when Amaro felt signing Lee to an extension would be too expensive, he pounced on Halladay and shipped Lee to Seattle. Fans still can't get over the fact that the Phils could have had Halladay and Lee in the same rotation, but they should be looking forward to Halladay pitching in the NL. He should dominate.

Polanco: The Phillies injected more life into their lineup when they signed Polanco to a three-year deal. He is a career .303 hitter and one of the toughest players to strike out. Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel basically said a couple weeks ago that Polanco will be his No. 2 hitter, which is no surprise. It puts a smart situational hitter atop the lineup and allows Manuel to hit Victorino sixth or seventh, which gives the Phils another look lower in the lineup. The only concern with Polanco is how well he plays defense. Pedro Feliz played nearly flawlessly at third. His glove will be missed, but Polanco is a better hitter.

RHP Danys Baez: The Phillies wanted to bring back right-hander Chan Ho Park, but they couldn't agree on a price. They moved on to Baez, who has closing experience. That could be very important considering how much Lidge struggled last season. Should Lidge struggle, Manuel might go with Baez in the ninth and keep Madson in the eighth.

RHP Jose Contreras: This is one of Amaro's low-risk, high-reward moves. Contreras made just five relief appearances last season with Colorado, but Philadelphia liked what it saw. The club thinks Contreras' stuff plays up better in the bullpen, which is exactly what it thought about Park last year. The Phils were right about Park. They hope they are right again with Contreras.

C Brian Schneider: Ruiz remains the team's starting catcher, but should Ruiz struggle or get hurt, the Phillies have somebody they feel confident can play every day for a significant period of time. Schneider struggled offensively last season with the Mets, but he said injuries and a lack of playing time contributed to that. He expects to bounce back in 2010.

INF Juan Castro: Castro isn't expected to help the Phils with his bat. He's in Philadelphia to give Rollins and Utley a break every once in a while. Manuel said he plans to do just that.

OF Ross Gload: Gload replaces Matt Stairs on the bench, although he is more versatile in that he is a good defensive first baseman. The only trick with Gload is getting him enough at-bats to stay sharp. Stairs got limited at-bats last season and he might have struggled as a result. Can Manuel get enough at-bats for Gload, Ben Francisco and Greg Dobbs?

Prospects to watch
OF Domonic Brown: Brown is the organization's top prospect and one of the top prospects in baseball. If he has a big year, it could influence the Phillies' decisions on Jayson Werth, who is a free agent after this season, and Raul Ibanez, who is a free agent after 2011.

RHP Phillippe Aumont: He became the organization's top pitching prospect after Kyle Drabek was sent to Toronto as part of the Halladay trade. Aumont pitched out of the bullpen last season, but the Phillies are returning him to the rotation. He is expected to open the season at Double-A Reading.

OF Tyson Gillies: He is the second of three players the Phillies received from Seattle for Lee. Gillies is a talented center fielder who gives the Phils two of the better center-field prospects in the game. Anthony Gose is the other.

LHP Joe Savery: This is a big year for Savery, a first-round pick in 2007. He went 16-6 with a 4.40 ERA in 28 games (27 starts) between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He needs to continue to show improvement if he hopes to live up to expectations.

On the rebound
Lidge: The veteran righty went from being the best reliever in baseball statistically in 2008 to the worst statistically in '09. It is obvious the Phils need Lidge back in form in '10. They think if he is healthy, he will be. And if he is, the bullpen should be much improved.

Moyer: If Moyer starts the season in the rotation, can he stay there? Philadelphia bumped out Moyer last August to make room for Pedro Martinez. If Moyer struggles again, the club might do the same and replace him with Kendrick or even Martinez again, if he remains unsigned.

Long gone
Scott Eyre: The journeyman lefty retired in the offseason. He plans to take the family in an RV out west this summer, but fans also might hear him on the radio and see him on TV, too. Phillies fans might miss him in the 'pen.

Feliz: He will be playing third base for the Astros this season. The Phils will miss his glove.

Park: He remains unsigned, which is a bit surprising considering how well he pitched in relief last season.

Todd Zolecki is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
MLB.com Comments

[Phillies]

Snow can't keep Phils from loading truck
Club sends equipment down to Florida as camp nears
[glow=red,2,300]http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/ne ... p&c_id=phi[/glow]
dai che si riparte!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hobbit83]

Projected batting order
1. SS Jimmy Rollins:
  .250 BA, .296 OBP, .423 SLG, 21 HR, 77 RBI in 2009
2. 3B Placido Polanco:
  .285 BA, .331 OBP, .396 SLG, 10 HR, 72 RBI in 2009
3. 2B Chase Utley:
  .282 BA, .397 OBP, .508 SLG, 31 HR, 93 RBI in 2009
4. 1B Ryan Howard:
  .279 BA, .360 OBP, .571 SLG, 45 HR, 141 RBI in 2009
5. RF Jayson Werth:
  .268 BA, .373 OBP, .506 SLG, 36 HR, 99 RBI in 2009
6. LF Raul Ibanez:
  .272 BA, .347 OBP, .552 SLG, 34 HR, 93 RBI in 2009
7. CF Shane Victorino:
  .292 BA, .358 OBP, .445 SLG, 10 HR, 62 RBI in 2009
8. C Carlos Ruiz:
  .255 BA, .355 OBP, .425 SLG, 9 HR, 43 RBI in 2009

Dato che Victorino non è certo un bradipo zoppo, e viste le stats, non sarebbe meglio invertire Rollins e Shane?
La OBP di Rollins non sarebbe buona nemmeno per un numero 7, ma se ne risentirebbe di meno. Mettere leadoff la peggiore OBP della squadra mi sembra senza senso.

[ItalianBlueJay]

conventional whisper...

rollins bisbigliando agli interni li mette in bambola, e prima lo può fare e più ne giova la squadra,  dovrebbe starci werth, rollins scala dietro ibanez, victorinox in 2 e polanco al suo posto

[Phillies]

Dato che Victorino non è certo un bradipo zoppo, e viste le stats, non sarebbe meglio invertire Rollins e Shane?
La OBP di Rollins non sarebbe buona nemmeno per un numero 7, ma se ne risentirebbe di meno. Mettere leadoff la peggiore OBP della squadra mi sembra senza senso.

condivido in pieno, ma mi sa che per quel che è stato Rollins, sarebbe considerato da lui,  dalla stampa e dai tifosi made U.s.a.  un disonore il 7' turno in battuta..... Rollins è venerato come un monumento
io penso che possiamo ancora permetterci di tenerlo in rotazione perchè con il forte lineup che abbiamo ci possiamo accontentare del suo solo apporto difensivo ( anche se, non ho i dati sottomano, mi sembra un pò anche lì in calo)  

[Phillies]

conventional whisper...

rollins bisbigliando agli interni li mette in bambola, e prima lo può fare e più ne giova la squadra,  dovrebbe starci werth, rollins scala dietro ibanez, victorinox in 2 e polanco al suo posto

Werth leadoff? no! jasone deve stare nel mezzo del lineup a mandar tutti a casa con i suoi Hr!

[dicmod]

Snow can't keep Phils from loading truck
Club sends equipment down to Florida as camp nears
[glow=red,2,300]http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/ne ... p&c_id=phi[/glow]
dai che si riparte!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sempre bello leggere l'elenco di quello che viene caricato, il nostro forum è iniziato così!

[Phillies]

-All the local Phillies beats are reporting that JC Romero believes he will be ready by opening day, and if not by then, definitely a week or so into the season.

This is a great sign that Romero has recovered from elbow surgery, because it’s imperative he find his 2008 form when he was one of the best situational lefties in baseball.  With Antonio Bastardo and Sergio Escalona being the primary lefties with Romero out, the Phils could use that stabilizing force in the bullpen.  I will say this; I am excited to see what both of the young lefties will bring to the table this spring.  In winter ball, Bastardo was lights out, while Escalona struggled mightily.
e questa è una notizia bellissima, con JC i mancini negli inning finali ci faranno a malapena il solletico! 




-According to the twitter of Tyler Kepner of the New York Post, Phillippe Aumont had “great action on his fastball” today.  That’s an important sign as Aumont is being groomed as a starter once again. The Seattle Mariners used him out of the bullpen to fast-track him to the majors, but the Phillies see him as part of the rotation down the line.

Unfortunately, there will be some pressure on Aumont to show his skill during Spring Training as a way of justifying the Cliff Lee deal.  Right or wrong, that’s the way it goes, so lets see how Aumont deals with being a target during the early part of spring.





-Chien Ming Wang agreed to a deal with the Washington Nationals today.  It’s for one-year and $2 million that includes $3 million is bonuses.

In swapping emails with our very own Amanda Orr, she believes the Nats could win 75 games this year.  After all, they’ve been very active this offseason signing Wang, Matt Capps, Eddie Guardado, Adam Kennedy, Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen, Pudge Rodriguez, Tyler Walker (our old friend), and Miguel Batista.  They’ve certainly done some maneuvering and are getting better slowly, so 75 wins is not out of the question.  That just makes it even more difficult for the Phillies in a slightly-better (on paper) NL East.
questa è una brutta notizia perchè con questi Nats la NLeast è ancora più difficle, c'è un aspetto positivo però...adesso i maledetti rischiano di arrivare ultimi!

[Hobbit83]

questa è una brutta notizia perchè con questi Nats la NLeast è ancora più difficle, c'è un aspetto positivo però...adesso i maledetti rischiano di arrivare ultimi!

...e prendersi Harper..... non vi è bastato Piazza?  :D

EDIT: sorry, errore. Se arrivano ultimi quest'anno vale per il draft '11.

[Phillies]

manca ormai pochissimo all'inizio dello ST e quindi alla nuova stagione 2010, permettetemi un ultimo saluto al magico Generale, sono certo che ci mancherai.......in bocca al lupo per la tua nuova avventura, ora sei un "Marinaio"!



ma è ora, a malincuore, di voltar pagina........



dopotutto c'è chi sta peggio di noi.....



incomincia già a salire l'adrenalina da regular season gli eterni rivali tornano alla mente....

[Phillies]

[glow=red,2,300]http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?cont ... 7&c_id=mlb[/glow]