Re: Statistiche sabermetriche

[rene144]

Provvederò senza dubbio, grazie 

[joesox]

Provvederò senza dubbio, grazie 

RENE' FALLI A PEZZI!

[rene144]

Ho risposto, ma comunque che vuoi dire ad uno che parla senza neanche sapere di cosa?

[joesox]

Pensavo di aver aperto tanto tempo fa un topic sulla FATICA dei lanciatori.
Cercando dati su dontrelle willis ho trovato questo!

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... -fastball/

Iniziamo ad avvicinarsi a quello che intendevo.

In breve - dall'inizio della partita alla fine (diciamo dopo i 100 lanci) un lanciatore perde lo 0.6% sulla veloce. Cioè da 95 mph a 94.43, un nonnulla.
E perde il 2% del movimento orizzontale, che invece per il controllo sembra essere più significativo.

L'articolo è molto esplicativo e ci sono numeri su Dice-K ed altri pitchers.

[Pablets]

L'avevo postato qualche ora fa in MLB in generale :lol2:

[joesox]

L'avevo postato qualche ora fa in MLB in generale :lol2:

HAHA
ho visto il post e ho pensato - cavoli che veloce - lo ha già letto e commentato!

interessante vero?

[Pablets]

HAHA
ho visto il post e ho pensato - cavoli che veloce - lo ha già letto e commentato!

interessante vero?

Sì, davvero molto interessante. THT è un serbatoio di ottimi articoli e soprattutto ottime analisi

[rene144]

Roba fantastica:

OK, so I saw one of the most hilarious things ever Sunday at Tropicana Field after the Royals-Rays game. Every Sunday in Tampa, and many other places, they let kids run the bases on the field, which is always nice* — I love watching kids run the bases. Well, while that was going on, the scoreboard was featuring these baseball cartoons. One, of course, was Baseball Bugs, which is required viewing and a classic (“I think I’ll perplex them with my slow ball”).

*Have you ever noticed on those days when kids run the bases there might be, I don’t know, 20,000 people at the game, but when it’s time to run there are suddenly 500,000 kids? Where do they come from? Were they hiding outside and watching the game through a knothole like Our Gang until the game ended?

But then there was an even more awesome cartoon, if you can believe it. You won’t even believe me when I tell you. You’ll think it was a dream. But no, it’s a cartoon where the Tampa Bay Rays are superheroes. Yeah. I wasn’t able to get the entire plot line, but apparently Joe Maddon is some sort of superhero mastermind, kind of like a baseball superhero Charlie, and he has the power to turn his Rays players into superheroes. One becomes really fast — so fast his feet look like a tornado. One I guess can throw stuff at bad guys — sort of a Roger Clemens for kids   The other one seems to be able to destroy bad guys by hitting them with a bat. Good lesson for the kids.

But, believe it or not, that’s not the hilarious part. No, the hilarious part is this: The villain they were trying to catch was someone named “Dr. Stat.” No, really. It seems that Dr. Stat — and I’m quoting from the cartoon now — wants to “use his knowledge of useless statistics to destroy the game.”

Yes, I’m completely serious here — I saw the thing twice. This Dr. Stat them appears on the Superfriends monitor, and he asks them who was the highest paid umpire in 1888. The Rays, of course, don’t know, and they make it clear to him that it is a stupid and pointless question. Dr. Stat then says, “Wrong answer,” and he says as punishment he will point his stat ray direction at Tropicana Field in order to make it impossible for people to enjoy the games.

OK, timeout here — what is a stat ray? How would that work? I should ask the guys at Baseball Prospectus if they have one. A stat ray. How great is that? I wonder what would happen if we would point the stat ray at some of my baseball writing friends. I’d love to aim it at my buddy Rick Morrissey up in Chicago, just to see what happened. Would he explode? Would he start talking about VORP and Eqa? I need to get me one of them.

Anyway, the cartoon Joe Maddon, realizing that this stat ray could destroy what the game stands for, started burning copies of the book Moneyball. No, wait, that’s not right. No, what he did was turn his Rays into superheroes and send them after Dr. Stat. They landed in Dr. Stat’s lair, and Dr. Stat being a fairly uncreative and unimaginative villain type sent some robots after them. I have no idea why he thought this would work, nor do I know what robots (and I mean they were the most boring looking robots you ever saw) had to do with his love of meaningless baseballs statistics. Maybe if they were, like, robots who invented new run matrixes, that would have made sense. But, in all honestly, wouldn’t it have been more realistic if Dr. Stat had sent, I don’t know, Pete Palmer and Voros McRacken after the heroes? The Rays would try to come after them, but they would be helpless against the power of linear weights and DIPS.

RAYS SUPERHERO: “Alas! I will strike you down now!”
Bill James: “That swing looks like Big Klu.”
RAYS SUPERHERO: “Who?”
Bill: “Ted Kluszewski. Big hitter for the Reds in the 1950s. Did you know that in baseball history there have only been seven seasons where a batter hit 40 or more homers and struck out 40 or fewer times. Joe DiMaggio did it once. Lou Gehrig once. Ted Kluszewski had three of those seasons.”
RAYS SUPERHERO: “Really? That’s interesting.”
Bill: “Yeah, he was actually discovered by a Reds groundskeeper.”
RAYS SUPERHERO: “By a groundskeeper? Really?”
JOE MADDON (into ear piece): “Get that guy! Save the game already!”
RAYS SUPERHERO: “Did you know that Ted Kluszewski was discovered by a groundskeeper?”

But no, instead, there were cliche robots, which the superheroes naturally destroyed with relative ease (especially since these were, like, two minute cartoons). And then, the narrator said: “Dr. Stat and his reign of useless knowledge was finished.”

It was a great cartoon. I just think it could have been even better.

Io AMO Joe Posnanski. A mani basse il miglior giornalista di baseball che ci sia. Ce ne vogliono di più come lui

[joesox]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... le-innings

Molto interessante.

[kalle]

domandone per renè, magari con risposta in pinaz & crechergiec 3.

secondo le statistiche saber e no, quali sono i pitchers/hitters più average nella Al e NL.

mi sono spiegato?

quali sono i giocatori che più si avvicinano alle medie della lega, e alle medie dettate dalla saber? quali le differenze?

[rene144]

domandone per renè, magari con risposta in pinaz & crechergiec 3.

secondo le statistiche saber e no, quali sono i pitchers/hitters più average nella Al e NL.

mi sono spiegato?

quali sono i giocatori che più si avvicinano alle medie della lega, e alle medie dettate dalla saber? quali le differenze?

Ti rispondo nel programma

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... le-innings

Molto interessante.

Quoto.

[joesox]

Ti rispondo nel programma

Quoto.

Le "difficili" 5-out save.

Se un rilievo entra con due out, ha buone chance di finire l'inning e completare anche quello successivo senza soffrire cali.
Ma se entra con un solo out ed appena appena si incasina per finire l'inning, magari dando una BB, ecco che l'inning successivo diventa abbastanza più rischioso.

[joesox]

Sto leggendo "Baseball Between the Numbers" - why everything you know about the game is wrong. Ho letto circa 100 pagine su 450. Ci sono molti concetti formidabili.

esempio banale - com'è che una battuta cade sull'erba e diventa una valida?
per merito di che cosa?
Fortuna 44%
Lanciatore 28%
Difesa 17%
Stadio 11%
E' tutto dimostrato.



La gran parte dele statistiche che mostrano alla TV durante le partite hanno, in pratica, valore nullo.

Se Moneyball vi ha sconvolto, questo vi trasporta direttamente su Marte. Chi lo ha già letto?

[lephio]

mi potreste dimostrare la fortuna perfavore? 

[joesox]

mi potreste dimostrare la fortuna perfavore? 

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